MLB Hot Stove matchmaking: A free-agent fit for all 30 teams as Winter Meetings near

Editors note: Andrew Heaney was listed as free-agent fit for the White Sox in a previous version of this article, but he is under contract with the Rangers. He exercised his player option with Texas for the 2024 season earlier this month.

Editor’s note: Andrew Heaney was listed as free-agent fit for the White Sox in a previous version of this article, but he is under contract with the Rangers. He exercised his player option with Texas for the 2024 season earlier this month.

The Athletic has live coverage of MLB free agency and the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

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The MLB Winter Meetings are mere days away and it’s impossible not to think about how the offseason dominoes could fall over the next week-plus. It’s been a relatively slow free-agent signing season so far, with only four players (Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Kyle Gibson) from my initial top 40 list off the board. Now, as people around baseball get ready to fly to Nashville for the meetings, we’re all eagerly waiting for the next free-agent shoe to drop.

In the meantime, I decided to play matchmaker and find new teams for 30 of the remaining free agents, placing them where I think the fit would work for both parties. Please note: Although I give contract estimates, these are not predictions, nor am I implying that any of these players are close to signing with these specific teams. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun debating potential moves until the hot stove warms up. In the comments section, feel free to share your own free-agent fits or let me know which ones of mine you like or don’t like. 

Arizona Diamondbacks — Michael Wacha, RHP (three years, $54 million)

The Diamondbacks need to add a quality veteran starter to their rotation behind Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and Wacha would fit nicely in that No. 4 spot. He had his second consecutive solid season this year, going 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA over 24 starts for the Padres, allowing just 113 hits in 134 1/3 innings while striking out 124. In 2022, he went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts. Wacha, 32, has been reliable over the past two years when healthy.

Atlanta Braves — Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (five years, $90 million)

Atlanta needs starting pitching depth after trading Kyle Wright and Michael Soroka this offseason. Rodriguez would be a good fit with the Braves and could slot into the middle of their rotation. He went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 26 starts this past season with Detroit.

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Baltimore Orioles — Jordan Montgomery, LHP (six years, $158 million)

The Orioles are one strong starting pitcher away from being a World Series team, and adding Montgomery (not to mention taking him away from the Rangers) could be that difference-making move. Montgomery, who will turn 31 at the end of next month, showed in October that he’s a big-game pitcher. He’s also proven to be consistent as he’s posted an ERA under 4.00 in each of the past three seasons. He made 32 starts this year and logged a 3.20 ERA. But Montgomery really increased his free-agent value in the postseason, particularly against the Astros in the ALCS, when he dominated, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over two starts and one relief appearance.

Blake Snell pitched 180 innings in 2023 but has reached that mark only one other time in his career. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

Boston Red Sox — Blake Snell, LHP (seven years, $174 million)

The Red Sox need to make a splash this winter and must address their biggest need: a top-of-the-rotation starter. Snell, fresh off an NL Cy Young-winning season, would do the trick. He went 14-9 this year with a 2.25 ERA over 32 starts, striking out 234 in 180 innings. (He also issued 99 walks, and became the first pitcher to ever lead his league in both ERA and walks.) He finished the season strong, allowing no runs in five of his last six starts. Snell ranked in the 100th percentile in pitching run value and breaking run value according to Baseball Savant. Opposing batters hit .079 against his curveball, .185 against his changeup and .123 against his slider.

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Chicago White Sox — Michael Lorenzen, RHP (two years, $18 million)

The White Sox need to build their rotation while also accumulating trade pieces they could move at the trade deadline for prospects, so Lorenzen makes sense if they can get him to sign a two-year contract. Lorenzen threw a no-hitter for Philadelphia this year and posted a 4.18 ERA over 153 innings between the Tigers and Phillies.

Chicago Cubs — Rhys Hoskins, 1B (one year, $12 million)

If the Cubs lose out on both Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, then a quick pivot to Hoskins could make sense. Hoskins, who has slugged .492 in his career, would provide middle-of-the-order power. He was an integral part of the Phillies winning the National League pennant in 2022, when he hit 30 home runs and posted a .794 OPS. He’s improved defensively at first base but is still a below-average defender. He missed the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training, a huge setback in his free-agent year. However, his legitimate 25 to 30 home run power would play well at Wrigley Field.

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Cincinnati Reds — Lucas Giolito, RHP (two years, $24 million)

The Reds need to add a veteran starter to their young rotation and Giolito could be a solid fit if they can get him on a two-year “prove it” type contract. Giolito pitched for three teams last season and went 8-15 overall with an inflated 4.88 ERA over 33 starts and 184 1/3 innings. He led the American League with 41 home runs allowed but struck out 10 batters per nine innings, though he also walked 3.6 per nine. His best seasons were from 2019 to 2021 when he finished in the top 11 of AL Cy Young Award voting all three years. The Reds should be able to help Giolito get back on track, making him a worthwhile gamble. He seems better suited for a smaller market like the Queen City.

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Cleveland Guardians — Justin Turner, DH (one year, $12 million)

The Guardians need to add consistent offense to their lineup and could use another strong clubhouse presence like Turner. He had a more than solid year for Boston, slashing .276/.345/.455 with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. Turner would fit nicely with the Guardians as the DH and an occasional corner infielder.

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Colorado Rockies — Marcus Stroman, RHP (three years, $77 million)

The Rockies need to add quality starters and always have to overpay and take risks to land proven pitchers. Since Stroman is a groundball pitcher, he has a chance to succeed even with half of his games at Coors Field. He’s a stellar defender and athlete who gives his team a legitimate fifth infielder when he’s on the mound. Stroman dealt with a rib cartilage fracture this past season but returned from the injured list in mid-September. He posted an ERA under 3.00 in the first half of the season and made his second All-Star team, then pitched just 24 innings over eight appearances in the second half, but still finished the year 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA in 25 starts and two relief appearances. Obviously, his medical reports and a physical will be key to his next contract.

Detroit Tigers — Jorge Soler, OF/DH (three years, $42 million)

The Tigers have prioritized right-handed power for the middle of their lineup and Soler is probably the most affordable power bat on the open market. This year with the Marlins he hit 36 home runs, reached base at a 34 percent clip, posted a 128 OPS+ and made his first All-Star team. His best season was in 2019 when he led the AL with 48 home runs and collected 117 RBIs.

Houston Astros — Jordan Hicks, RHP (three years, $30 million)

The Astros’ main personnel goal this offseason is to add to their strong bullpen and Hicks would be a smart acquisition in that regard as he could pitch important medium- to high-leverage innings for them in the sixth, seventh and eighth. He is finally healthy and back to throwing in the triple digits. The Blue Jays acquired him from the Cardinals at the trade deadline last season and he pitched well for Toronto, posting a 2.63 ERA in 25 appearances with four saves. Overall this year, he logged a 3.29 ERA in 66 appearances with 81 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings and 12 saves.

Kansas City Royals — Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP (one year, $8 million with incentives)

The Royals need proven starters to keep them in games and help them be more competitive. More importantly, they will need players they can trade for prospects at the deadline like they successfully did this year when they dealt Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers. Ryu was impressive this past season in his return from Tommy John surgery. He made his first appearance on Aug. 1 and finished with a 3.46 ERA in 11 starts, allowing three runs or fewer in nine starts and two runs or fewer in seven of them. He pitched five innings in six starts and also had a six-inning start. His fastball was mostly 87-89 mph and opponents hit .276 against his changeup and .238 against his cutter. Still, he will have to sign a “prove it” pillow contract.

Los Angeles Angels — Teoscar Hernández, OF (three years, $42 million)

The Angels are active in talks with free agents and have to be as they try to replace the power they’re expected to lose when Ohtani signs elsewhere. Enter Hernández, who has hit 25 or more home runs in four of the past five seasons, including 26 this year to go along with 29 doubles and 93 RBIs (but also 211 strikeouts). The two-time Silver Slugger is a below-average defender in right field who this year had just 1 Defensive Run Saved, made three errors, and finished in the 61st percentile in Outs Above Average (range). However, he also was in the 78th percentile in arm strength and in the 82nd percentile in sprint speed.

Can Mookie Betts’ Dodgers reel in Shohei Ohtani? (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

Los Angeles Dodgers – Shohei Ohtani, DH (10 years, $417 million with incentives that take the deal to more than $500 million)

The baseball world is waiting and wondering where Ohtani will sign, and the match with the Dodgers makes too much sense. Ohtani just completed arguably the best single season in MLB history. As a hitter, he led the league with 44 home runs while scoring 102 runs, driving in 95, stealing 20 bases and slashing .304/.412/.654 (184 OPS+). He is expected to become the highest-paid player in baseball history. He’s a top-of-the-rotation ace when healthy and a middle-of-the-order impact bat. Ohtani’s right elbow surgery this offseason will prevent him from pitching in 2024 but he is expected to be ready to DH by Opening Day.

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Miami Marlins — J.D. Martinez, DH (one year, $12 million)

The Marlins need to improve the middle of their lineup and Martinez would be a difference-maker for their offense. He lives in South Florida in the offseason so this would be an easy commute for Martinez, who is in the latter stages of his career. He found new life with the Dodgers last season and was one of the best designated hitters in the league as he hit 33 homers with 103 RBIs and a 134 OPS+. He made an All-Star team for the third straight year. Martinez would also bring valuable leadership to the Marlins’ clubhouse.

Milwaukee Brewers — Seth Lugo, RHP (two years, $24 million)

The Brewers have already non-tendered Brandon Woodruff and lost Wade Miley to free agency and soon could be trading Corbin Burnes, so acquiring starting pitching is their top priority. Lugo would fit their budget and provide quality innings in the back of their rotation. He went 8-7 this year with a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts (146 1/3 innings). He was a full-time starter for the first time since 2017 and he relished the role. Lugo, 34, has kept his season ERA between 3.50 and 3.60 for three consecutive years, although his strikeouts per nine innings have been trending down, going from 10.7 to 9.6 to 8.6 over that span.

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Minnesota Twins — Wade Miley, LHP (one year, $13.5 million)

The Twins are looking to add a sixth starter type to protect themselves from injury and Miley would be a perfect fit. Although the 37-year-old is looking for a longer-term deal, if he doesn’t find one he might be willing to sign for one year. The Twins’ expected rotation as of now is Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland, who are all right-handers. Miley, a soft-tossing lefty, would give a much different look.  He went 9-4 with a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts (120 1/3 innings) with the Brewers this year, although he also had a 4.69 FIP. However, it was the third consecutive year in which he posted an ERA under 3.40, a span that includes 59 starts and one relief appearance.

New York Yankees — Cody Bellinger, LF (seven years, $177 million)

The Yankees have prioritized adding an elite starting pitcher and a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and in terms of the latter, there’s no better fit in the Bronx than Bellinger. He slashed .307/.356/.525 with 29 doubles, 26 home runs, 95 runs scored and 97 RBIs while stealing 20 bases in 26 attempts for the Cubs this past season. He also provides terrific versatility because he’s able to play above-average defense at first base and in all three outfield positions. With the Yankees, he could play center or left field and eventually move to first base in the future when Anthony Rizzo departs.

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New York Mets — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (seven years, $211 million)

Yamamoto is the most sought-after starting pitcher in free agency and nobody knows where he’s going to land. However, the Mets would be a good destination for him, and they have prioritized starting pitching as their most pressing need. I saw Yamamoto throw in the World Baseball Classic and he certainly impressed, but his value has skyrocketed since then and teams now view him as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter who could step into any rotation and provide an ERA in the 2’s. He really knows how to pitch by adding and subtracting, and he has extraordinary command in and out of the strike zone. He’s a competitor with savvy, feel and poise. His fastball is in the mid- to high-90s and he throws a wipeout split-finger and plus curveball as part of his five-pitch mix. He moves the ball west to east and north to south extremely well, too. At just 25 years old, Yamamoto has won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts and wins) in each of the past two seasons in Japan. He went 16-6 with a career-low 1.21 ERA in 23 starts this year for the Orix Buffaloes in Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s special and going to be paid accordingly.

Oakland A’s — Phil Maton, RHP (two years, $15.75 million)

The A’s are not expected to be active in free agency, but signing a solid middle reliever makes a lot of sense to give them a good trade chip for the deadline. Maton made 68 appearances for the Astros this year, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.121 WHIP with 74 strikeouts in 66 innings. He finished the year strong, allowing one hit, no runs and no walks with six strikeouts over his last five appearances in the playoffs.

Whit Merrifield and the Phillies could be a good match. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

Philadelphia Phillies — Whit Merrifield, INF/OF (two years, $18 million)

The Phillies made their big splash when they re-signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract, so now they can focus their attention on adding a right-handed hitter who can play multiple positions. Merrifield, who made his third All-Star team this year, makes a lot of sense. He slashed .272/.318/.382 with 27 doubles, 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases this past season for the Blue Jays. His ability to play both second base and the outfield increases his value and he fits perfectly with this Phillies team. In his career, he has led the majors in hits (twice), doubles, triples, stolen bases and even sacrifice flies. Merrifield, 34, is a leader in the clubhouse and at this point in his career, his value is most appreciated by contending teams that could use him as a 10th player.

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Pittsburgh Pirates — Mitch Garver, DH/C (two years, $18 million)

The Pirates are trying to improve their lineup from top to bottom and Garver would represent a solid veteran addition. He slashed .270/.370/.500 for the Rangers last season with 19 home runs and 50 RBIs in just 296 at-bats. He batted .344 against lefties but hit all of his home runs against righties. His professional at-bats would set a good example for the Pirates’ young hitters and he’d improve the middle of their lineup with his consistency.

San Diego Padres — Aroldis Chapman, LHP (two years, $14 million with incentives)

The Padres will need to find a way to replace closer Josh Hader, and Chapman could fit the bill. He was instrumental in the Rangers winning the World Series despite his continued control and command issues. Chapman logged a 3.09 ERA this year, striking out 103 in 58 1/3 innings and yielding just 37 hits. His fastball was back in the triple digits and his slider was as nasty and hard as it’s been in many years. However, he’s still wild and walks way too many batters (5.7 walks per nine innings).

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San Francisco Giants — Jung Hoo Lee, CF (four years, $60 million)

The Giants will be chasing most of the top free agents in this class, starting with Shohei Ohtani. However, their most likely signing is Lee, whom their front office has been drooling over all summer. The Giants believe he’ll be a .270- to .290-type hitter, but more importantly, provide a high contact rate and an ability to draw walks as he has walked more than struck out over seven seasons in the KBO. He’s a plus center fielder with plus range and a strong arm who gets good jumps and takes smart routes to the ball. He’s an above-average runner with long strides but is not much of a base-stealing threat. He doesn’t have a lot of power. He won the KBO MVP award in 2022 but missed significant time in 2023 after fracturing his ankle in July. San Francisco has long been the front-runner to sign him.

Jeimer Candelario could help the Mariners in several ways. (David Kohl / USA Today)

Seattle Mariners — Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B (two years, $18 million)

The Mariners traded Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks last week, which created a need at third base and Candelario would be a natural fit. Seattle needs to improve the depth, versatility and contact rate of its position-player pool. Candelario could start at third base but also give them depth at first base and DH. He slashed .251/.336/.471 with 30 doubles, 16 home runs and 53 RBIs last season with the Nationals and Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals — Mike Clevinger, RHP (two years, $20 million)

The Cardinals have already accomplished their main offseason goal of revamping their rotation with the signings of right-handers Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Gray received a three-year, $75 million deal, while Gibson and Lynn signed one-year deals for $12 million and $10 million, respectively. But why stop there? It’s now unlikely they sign Yamamoto, Montgomery or Snell, but why not sign one more depth pitcher who can provide innings? Clevinger went 9-9 with a 3.77 ERA over 24 starts (131 1/3 innings) this year for the White Sox. He allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts of the season. There’s no reason for St. Louis to stop stockpiling starting pitching after the major issues it had last year in that department.

Tampa Bay Rays — Shota Imanaga, LHP (no contract estimate)

The Rays always seem to surprise us with an offseason transaction. Last year it was signing Zach Eflin. This year, perhaps it could be landing Imanaga. The left-hander spent eight seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball and had a 3.18 career ERA over 163 games. However, in 2022 he put up a 2.26 ERA and this year he logged a 2.71. Imanaga, 30, struck out approximately 30 percent of the batters he faced this year and walked just 4 percent. According to scouts from several teams, he profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter in MLB. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, along with a curveball, slider and changeup.

Texas Rangers — Josh Hader, LHP (five years, $104 million)

I wanted to match the Rangers up with Ohtani but decided to go with the prevailing opinion in the industry that he’ll sign with the Dodgers. Therefore, I’ll say they sign Hader and pair him with José Leclerc, which would give the Rangers the most powerful back of the bullpen in the game. Hader remains one of the most dominant relievers in baseball and last season posted a 1.28 ERA with 33 saves and 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. He wants to be the highest-paid closer in the sport and I think he will be when he signs his next deal. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA and in the 99th percentile in xERA and K%. Opposing batters hit .190 against his two-seam fastball and .100 against his slider.

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Toronto Blue Jays — Matt Chapman, 3B (six years, $127 million)

The Blue Jays are trying hard to re-sign Chapman and I think they’ll eventually offer six years and get a deal done. Chapman remains one of the best defensive third basemen of this era. The three-time Gold Glove Award winner has tremendous range to all sides and is a proven power hitter, with 155 home runs over his seven-year career. His career slash line of .240/.320/.461 is representative of what to expect from him. He hit 27 home runs in 2021 and 2022 but only 17 in 2023 with 54 RBIs. However, he had 39 doubles and scored 66 runs in 140 games. Chapman has 92 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, including 12 DRS this year with Toronto. He finished the season in the 98th percentile in both average exit velocity and barrel percentage and in the 100th percentile in hard-hit percentage. His range (Outs Above Average) was in the 87th percentile.

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Washington Nationals — Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF (three years, $42 million)

The Nationals have made the corner outfield position an offseason priority and Gurriel would be a solid fit to address that need. Gurriel had arguably the best year of his career, slashing .261/.309/.463 with 35 doubles, 24 home runs and 82 RBIs. He also had a career-best 14 Defensive Runs Saved and played an integral part in the Diamondbacks winning the National League pennant.

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(Top photo of Jordan Montgomery: Bailey Orr / Texas Rangers / Getty Images)

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